城市轨道交通新线接入客流精细化预测模型

Refined Prediction Model of Passenger Flow for New Urban Rail Transit Line

随着城市轨道交通的不断发展,每年都会有不同类型的新线或者延长线投入运营。新线接入不仅会改变原有轨道交通路网的拓扑结构,影响乘客出行路径选择,而且对客流时空分布有较大影响。以工程可行性研究报告中新线车站的开通年全日上下车人数为依据,采用改进的双约束重力模型实现新线车站相关OD客流量全日预测;建立路网及车站的分时进出站规律模型,实现新线相关OD客流量的精细化预测;采用加权平均法对既有车站OD客流量进行预测,并分析挖掘历史新线接入前后既有车站客流的变化规律,实现预测优化调整。提出的预测方法不仅可应用于新线接入前,为新线接入后的运营安全和科学高效的调度指挥提供有力支撑,而且可用于轨道交通线路规划阶段客流分布预测仿真。

With the continuous development of urban rail transit,different types of new lines or extension lines will be put into operation every year.The new line access will not only change the topological structure of the original rail transit network,affect the selection of passenger travel routes,but also have a great impact on the time-space distribution of passenger flow.The engineering feasibility study analyzed the number of full-day boarding and alighting passengers during the opening year of new line stations.Based on the relevant statistics,this paper proposes an improved double-constraint gravity model to realize the OD volume full-day prediction in new line stations.A time-based inbound and outbound law model of the railway network and stations is established to realize the refined prediction of relevant OD volume of the new line.The weighted average method is adopted to predict the OD volume in existing stations,and analyze and explore the change rule of passenger flow of existing stations before and after the new line access,so as to realize the optimization and adjustment of prediction.The proposed prediction method can not only provide strong support for the operation safety and efficient traffic control,but also can be used for the prediction and simulation of passenger flow distribution in the planning stage of rail transit lines.