“十三五”期间我国煤矿事故特征及演变趋势分析

Analysis on characteristics and evolution trend of coal mine accidents in our country during"13 th five-year"plan period

为从宏观层面总体评价全国各产煤省事故风险,并分析事故变化特征,搜集“十三五”期间国内煤矿事故数据,从煤矿事故类型、伤亡情况、时空地域等方面,采用数理统计、可拓理论等数学方法,分析煤矿整体安全演变趋势。研究结果表明:顶板事故取代瓦斯事故成为主要事故类型,事故发生地域呈现出由南向北转移趋势,国有煤矿事故总量占比增大,乡镇煤矿较大以上事故多发;频发事故省份存在煤矿数量多、百万吨死亡率高及地质条件复杂等特性,矿山机构改革以及强化企业安全生产主体责任,对于矿山安全生产起到积极的推动作用;煤矿事故类型变化与国内灾害治理投入、标准制定、煤矿安全生产风险监测预警体系的建立,以及淘汰小型落后煤矿存在强耦合关联关系;采用可拓理论分析得出“十三五”初期整体煤矿事故风险等级为三级,到“十三五”末期整体煤矿事故风险等级为二级,整体安全形势趋于向好。

In order to make an overall macro-level assessment of accident risks in all coal-producing provinces of China,and to analyze the characteristics of accident changes,and to collect data on domestic coal mine accidents during the period of"13 th five-year",from the aspects of coal mine accident type,casualty,time,space and region,this paper analyzes the change of whole coal mine safety situation by mathematical statistics,extension theory and other mathematical methods.The results show that roof accident takes the place of gas accidents as the main accident type,and the accident area is shifting from south to north.The proportion of accidents in state-owned coal mines increased,and more larger size accidents happened in the township coal mine.There are many coal mines,a high death rate of one million tons and complicated geological conditions in the provinces with frequent accidents.Reform of mining institutions and strengthening the main responsibility of enterprises for production safety plays an active role in promoting mine safety production.The change in coal mine accident types,and the establishment of domestic disaster management investment,standard-setting and risk monitoring and early-warning system of coal mine safety production,and the elimination of small and backward coal mines have a strongly coupled correlation.Based on the analysis of extension theory,the overall risk level of coal mine accidents in the early period of the"13 th five-year"is three,by the end of the"13 th five-year",the overall coal mine accident risk level is two,the overall safety situation tends to be good.