三级供应链下供应商汇率风险管理策略研究

Research on the Supplier Exchange Rate Risk Management Strategy under the Three-tier Supply Chain

考虑一条三级供应链,其组成部分分别是国外供应商、国内制造商和国内零售商,研究了供应商(汇率风险承担企业)外汇期货对冲策略的有效性。首先,针对供应商不对冲/对冲汇率风险两种情形构建了博弈模型,进一步通过一系列求解得到了两种情形下的模型均衡;然后,比较了不对冲/对冲情形下供应链各成员的均衡决策与盈利状况。研究结果表明,供应商外汇期货对冲策略发挥了以下作用:(1)提高了供应链系统订货量,降低了供应链系统批发价格,增加了供应链各成员的利润进而增强了供应链整体盈利能力;(2)降低了供应商收益的波动性,避免了汇率风险对制造商、零售商的影响。由此可见,三级供应链下的外向型企业可以通过外汇期货对冲策略降低或避免汇率风险带来的负面影响,进而提高供应链系统的整体抗风险能力。

Considering a three-level supply chain whose members are foreign suppliers,domestic manufacturers,and domestic retailers,the effectiveness of foreign exchange futures hedging strategies for suppliers(exchange rate risk-taking companies)is studied.Firstly,a game model is constructed for the two situations of the supplier’s non-hedging/hedging exchange rate risk,and the model equilibrium under the two situations is obtained through a series of solutions;then,the balanced decision-makingand profitabilityof each member of the supply chain under the non-hedging/hedging situation are compared.The research results show that the supplier’s foreign exchange futures hedging strategy hasplayed the following roles:(1)It increases the order quantity of the supply chain system,reduces the wholesale price of the supply chain system,increases the profits of each member of the supply chain,and enhances the overall profitability of the supply chain;(2)It reduces the volatility of suppliers’earnings and avoids the impact of exchange rate risks on manufacturers and retailers.Export-oriented enterprises under the three-level supply chain can reduce or avoid the negative impact of exchange rate risks through foreign exchange futures hedging strategy,thereby improving the overall anti-risk capability of the supply chain system.