可持续宜居性的理论框架与实证分析以江汉平原为例

Theoretical Framework and Empirical Analysis of Sustainable Livability: ACase of the Jianghan Plain

针对当前宜居性的测度研究未能结合可持续性长期目标及强可持续性的不足,构建可持续宜居性的理论框架并开展实证研究。结合2030年联合国可持续发展目标,从宏观、微观多层级构建了涵盖3个宜居子系统、4类宜居需求和18项指标的可持续宜居性评价指标体系;并基于强可持续性理论,优化可持续宜居性的评价技术体系,以顾及宜居子系统间的不可替代性。使用GIS空间分析法和格网编码分析法,对江汉平原可持续宜居性时空分布格局及演化规律进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)江汉平原可持续宜居水平整体呈现波动上升趋势,县域可持续宜居性内部极化效应减弱;(2)因自然禀赋、地理区位、政府政策等因素差异,江汉平原可持续宜居指数呈自东北向西南梯度递减的非均衡空间分布格局;(3)可持续宜居变化指数高值区以汉川市、公安县为中心向四周蔓延分布。这表明可持续宜居水平相对较弱的县域单元在政府政策的推动下,呈现稳步上升趋势。结合可持续宜居指数与可持续宜居变化指数,将县域单元划分为优化建设区、适度建设区和重点建设区。基于强弱可持续理论,对标2030年联合国可持续发展目标,针对不同县域类型提出的差异化建设建议,正是以江汉平原为代表的平原农业区实现可持续宜居性的有效途径,也是可持续宜居性相关研究的实践参考。

Considering the inadequacy of current measurement research on livability fails to combine the long-term goal of sustainability and strong sustainability,a theoretical framework for sustainable livability was constructed and empirical analysis was carried out. Combined with the 2030 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals,an evaluation index system of sustainable livability from macro and micro levels was established,consisting of three livable subsystems,four categories of livability needs and eighteen indicators. Based on the concept of strong sustainability,the evaluation technology system of sustainable livability was optimised,taking into account the irreplaceability between livability subsystems. Moreover,the temporal evolution characteristics and spatial distribution patterns of livability in the Jianghan Plain were analysed utilising GIS spatial analysis method and grid coding analysis method.The results were shown as follows:(1) The overall livability level of county units in the Jianghan Plain showed a fluctuating upward trend,and the internal polarisation effect of sustainable livability of counties was weakened.(2) Due to the differences in natural endowment,geographical location,government policy and other factors,the sustainable livability index of the Jianghan Plain showed a non-equilibrium spatial distribution pattern of decreasing gradient from the northeast to the southwest.(3) The high value areas of the sustainable livability change index spread around Hanchuan City and Gong’an County. This suggested that the county units with relatively weak sustainable livable levels presented a steady upward trend driven by government policies. The county units can be divided into optimised construction areas,moderate construction areas and key construction areas according to the county units’ livability and the livability change index. Differentiated guidance was proposed for different types of county units regarding the 2030 sustainable development goals and the theory of strong and weak sustainability,which provided a scientific basis for the construction of livability in the Jianghan Plain and a theoretical reference for sustainable livability research.