农户分化、代际差异对种粮大户气象灾害适应性行为采纳度的影响

Influences of Differentiation of Farmers and Intergenerational Differences on Acceptance of Meteorological Disaster Adaptation Behaviors of Large Grain Farmers

【目的】农户作为农业生产的微观决策主体和气象灾害的直接承受者,其气象灾害适应性行为的采纳度,对我国农业可持续生产有重要意义。【方法】基于江西省343份种粮大户调研数据,以顾客感知理论和新古典经济学“理性人”为框架,通过Tobit模型阐明了农户分化、代际差异及代际调节效应对种粮大户气象灾害适应性行为采纳度的作用机理。【结果】种粮大户职业分化对气象灾害适应性行为采纳度有显著正向影响,但收入分化影响不显著;与老一代农户相比新生代农户气象灾害适应性行为采纳度更高,比平均水平高50.25%;农户分化对气象灾害适应性行为采纳度的作用会受到代际差异的影响,农户分化对新一代农户的适应性行为采纳度边际效应更强。【结论】根据研究结果,对不同分化程度、不同代际的农户提出了精准性建议,以期提高各类种粮大户的气象灾害适应性行为采纳度。

[Objective]As the micro decision-making subject of agricultural production and the direct recipient of meteorological disasters,the farmers’adoption degree of meteorological disaster adaptive behaviors is of great significance to sustainable agricultural production in China.[Method]Based on the survey data of 343 large grain growers in Jiangxi Province,this paper used the customer perception theory and neoclassical economics‘person’as the framework to clarify the mechanism of farmers differentiation,intergenerational differences and intergenerational adjustment effects on the adoption of meteorological disaster adaptive behaviors of large grain growers through Tobit model.[Results]The empirical results showed that the occupational differentiation of large grain farmers had a significantly positive impact on their adoption of meteorological disaster adaptive behaviors,but the income differentiation had no such significant impact.Compared with that of the old generation of farmers,the new generation of farmers’adoption of meteorological disaster adaptive behaviors was higher,50.25%higher than the average;the effect of farmer differentiation on the adoption of adaptive behaviors of meteorological disasters would be affected by intergenerational differences.The marginal effect of farmer differentiation on the adoption of adaptive behaviors of new generation farmers was stronger.[Conclusion]Based on the research results,this paper put forward accurate suggestions for farmers with different degrees of differentiation and generations,in order to improve the adoption of meteorological disaster adaptive behaviors of large grain farmers.