基于DEMATEL-ISM模型的森林火灾野外火源因素的层次结构研究——以江西省吉安县为例

Hierarchical Structure of Wildfire Factors of Forest Fires Based on DEMATEL-ISM Model:A Case Study of Ji’an County,Jiangxi Province

【目的】气候变化背景下森林火灾频繁发生,特别是当前极端干旱造成了多地发生森林火灾。研究森林火灾野外火源因素的层次结构,对预防森林火灾的发生具有一定的参考意义。【方法】主要通过应用复杂系统因素重要性判定的DEMATEL-ISM模型,构建直接影响矩阵和综合关系矩阵,计算各维度因素的中心度和原因度,分析吉安县历史引发森林火灾野外火源因素的层次结构,从而得到吉安县历史引发森林火灾野外火源因素及其关系。【结果】引发吉安县历史森林火灾10个野外火源中,有5个因子为直接影响因素,分别是S1、S5、S6、S8、S9,有4个因子为间接影响因素S10、S2、S3、S7,S4为根本影响因素。【意义】找准主要矛盾可为防范森林火灾提供新的决策思路与方法。

[Objective]The frequent occurrence of forest fires in the context of climate change,especially the current extreme drought,has caused forest fires in many places.By the hierarchy of wildfire factors of forest fires,the study has some references for the fire prevention.[Method]This study mainly analyzed the hierarchical structure of historical triggering wildfire factors of forest fires in Ji’an County by applying the DEMATEL-ISM model to determine the importance of complex system factors,by constructing the direct influence matrix and comprehensive relationship matrix,and calculating the centrality and a degree of each dimensional factor,so to obtain the historical triggering wildfire factors of forest fires and their relationships in Ji’an County.[Results]The results showed that among the 10 wildfire sources triggering historical forest fires in Ji’an County,5 factors were directly influencing factors,namely S1,S5,S6,S8,and S9,and 4 factors were indirectly influencing factors S10,S2,S3,and S7,of which S4 was the fundamental influencing factor.[Significance]Identifying the main contradiction could provide new decision-making ideas and methods for forest fire prevention.