第29届女篮亚洲杯参赛各队攻防能力对比分析——兼论中国队失利原因

Comparative analysis on the offensive and defensive capabilities of the teams participating in the 29th Women’s Basketball Asian Cup——discuss the reasons of Chinese team’s failure

运用秩和比综合评价法、录像观察法、数理统计法等,对第29届女篮亚洲杯中各参赛队的攻防能力进行综合等级评价分析,并着重分析了中国队和日本队在决赛中的攻防指标,旨在客观反应出各参赛球队的攻防能力,找出决赛中国队失利因素。结果显示:(1)中国队和澳大利亚队攻防能力RSR值依次为第一和第二,处于A级水平;日本队和韩国队攻防能力RSR值依次排名第三和第四,处于B级水平;新西兰攻防能力RSR值排名第五,处于C级水平;中国台湾和印度攻防能力RSR值排名并列第六,处于D级水平;菲律宾攻防能力RSR值排名最末,处于E级。(2)进攻端,中国队与日本队在2分球命中数/出手数、3分球出手数和罚球命中率指标上,双方有显著性差异(P<0.05),其余指标均无显著性差异(P>0.05)。防守端,防守篮板球双方存在非常显著性差异(P<0.01),其余指标无显著性差异(P>0.05)。(3)中国队攻防RSR值处于A级,秩次排名第一,日本队处于B级,秩次排名第三。但日本队却获得最终冠军,主要原因是中国队多运用内线得分,三分球的出手很少,罚球命中率上不如日本队,助攻数量和进攻篮板比日本队多,但失误数太多;防守方面,中国队抢断积极性不高,抢断数不如日本,犯规次数多于日本。

By using the methods of rank-sum ratio comprehensive evaluation,video observation and mathematical statistics,this paper comprehensively evaluates the attack and defense ability of each team in the 29th Asian Women’s Basketball Cup,and focuses on the analysis of the attack and defense indexes of China and Japan in the final,and finds out the failure factors of China team. The research results show:(1)The offensive and defensive capabilities of the Chinese team and Australian team are at the A-level;Japanese and South Korean teams are at the B-level;New Zealand team’s offensive and defensive capabilities are at the C-level;Chinese Taipei is at the D level;Philippine’s offensive and defensive capabilities ranks last,at the E level.(2)On the offensive end,there are significant differences between the Chinese team and the Japanese team in the number of two-point/shots,the number of three-point shots and free throw shooting percentages(P<0.05),and there are no significant differences in other indicators. On the defensive side,there is a significant difference between the two sides in defensive rebounding(P<0.01),and the other indicators have no significant difference.(3)The Chinese team’s offensive and defensive RSR value is in the A-level,ranking first,while the Japanese team is in the B-level,ranking third in the ranking. However,the Japanese team won the final championship,mainly because in the finals,the Chinese team used more inside points,made few three points,and the free throw rate is not as good as the Japanese team.The number of assists and offensive rebounds are higher than the Japanese team,but the number of mistakes are more. In terms of defense,the Chinese team is not very motivated in stealing,the number of steals is not as good as that of Japan,and the number of fouls is more than that of Japan.