2022年天然橡胶期货市场回顾及2023年展望

Review of Natural Rubber Futures Market in 2022 and Outlook in 2023

2022年天然橡胶期货市场总体呈现震荡下跌的走势。2023年全球天然橡胶产量增速预计为3%,国内天然橡胶产量保持缓慢增长,进口量将维持在高位水平,国内表观供应量预计同比增长-0.7%~3%。在国内无政策刺激的背景下,内需刚需趋于自然修复但预计不会出现高增长,出口下滑预期明显。2023年,天然橡胶供需矛盾不显著,天然橡胶价格会受宏观经济复苏预期的强弱而波动,如果轮胎企业能去库存,且经济复苏预期转强,在现有橡胶库存量偏低的背景下,则会对天然橡胶市场产生助涨的效果,预计天然橡胶期货价格的波动区间为每吨11000~14000元。

In 2022,the natural rubber futures market generally showed a trend of shock and decline.In 2023,the growth rate of global natural rubber output is expected to be 3%,while the domestic natural rubber output will maintain slow growth,the import will remain at a high level,and the domestic apparent supply is expected to grow by-0.7%~3%year-on-year.In the absence of the domestic stimulus policy,domestic demand is tending to recover naturally,but it is not expected to have high growth,and export is expected to decline significantly.In 2023,the contradiction between the supply and demand of natural rubber is weak,and the price of natural rubber will fluctuate mainly due to the strength of macroeconomic recovery expectations.If tire enterprises can destock,and the economic recovery is getting stronger,the natural rubber market could have some growth due to the low existing rubber inventory.It is estimated that the natural rubber futures price will fluctuate from 11000 to 14000 yuan per ton.