全球价值链风险、能源安全与“双碳”目标

Global value chain risks,energy security,and the‘dual carbon’goals

该研究以新型冠状病毒(COVID-19)的全球蔓延引发的全球价值链(GVC)危机和俄乌冲突为背景,利用投入产出表的风险分析和地缘政治推演方法,基于最新的碳排放和能源贸易数据,从气候治理困境、全球价值链危机、能源安全与能源转型三个维度来分析全球价值链风险和能源安全问题,推演世界能源贸易走向变化和地缘政治演变及其对中国的影响。该研究的主要发现和观点是。①全球价值链的断链、碎片化、断供乃至停产,已经对世界经济产生了巨大冲击,亟须重建疫情后的安全、稳定、有韧性、绿色和持续的全球价值链体系。②俄乌冲突以来世界能源贸易走向和流量出现很大变化,能源供应链逐渐形成“欧美供应链”“欧亚供应链”“日澳印美供应链”“OPEC供应链”和“欧洲供应链”五条供应链,其中以美国加大向欧洲出口液化天然气最为突显,而俄罗斯大幅增加对亚洲国家的能源出口形成了新的“欧亚能源供应链”。③世界能源地缘政治正在向美国强化对欧洲的控制来共同抑制俄罗斯、打造亚太“四边机制”以对抗中国的方向发展,能源安全已经和地缘政治捆绑。④中国应当起到地缘政治“平衡器”的作用,避免冷战和“准冷战”局面的出现,保障自身的能源安全,积极稳妥地推进“双碳”目标,稳定地走和平发展的道路。该研究的结论认为:“双碳”目标给中国设定了一个能源转型、经济转型、发展方式转型的时限,而近年来欧美等国的“去中国化”措施和全球价值链危机等,倒逼中国加快产业转型、贸易升级和经济结构合理化,打造升级版的“世界工厂”,全面实现高质量的、绿色的进而净零碳排放的可持续发展。

Under the background of the global value chain(GVC)crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,using methods of risk analysis of input-output table and geopolitical deduction,and based on the latest datasets of carbon dioxide emissions and the world energy trade,this paper analyzes the global value chain risks and energy security issues from three dimensions:climate governance dilemma,the global value chain crisis,and energy security and energy transition.It then presumes changes in world energy trade and geopolitical evolution and assesses their impact on China.The main findings and viewpoints of this paper are as follows:①The brokage,fragmentation,cutoff,and even production stoppage of the global value chain have done huge damage to the world economy,and it is urgent to rebuild a safe,stable,resilient,and green global value chain in the post-COVID-19 era.②Due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the flow direction and volume of the world’s energy trade have changed greatly,and the energy supply chain has gradually formulated into five formulas:the‘Europe-U.S.supply chain,’the‘Eurasian supply chain,’the‘U.S.,Japan,Australia,and India supply chain,’the‘OPEC supply chain,’and a‘new Europe supply chain.’Among them,the United States has increased rapidly its LNG exports to Europe,and Russia has significantly increased its energy exports to Asian countries,inducing a new‘Eurasian energy supply chain.’③The world’s energy geopolitics is evolving in such a way that the United States is strengthening its grip on Europe to jointly restrain Russia’s power and initiating a Asia-Pacific‘four-sided mechanism’to counter China’s rise.Consequently,energy security has been bound to geopolitics.④China should act as a geopolitical‘power of equilibrium’to avoid the increasing risk of a new Cold War or a‘quasi-Cold War’to ensure its own energy security,to promote its dual goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality actively and gradually,and to steadily follow the path of peaceful development.We conclude that:the‘dual carbon’goals set up a timetable for China’s transitions in terms of energy,economy,and development mode.At the same time,the strategy of‘decoupling with China’promoted by some countries gives China an opportunity instead and forces China to accelerate its industrial transition,trade upgrading,and optimization of economic structure,in order to build an upgraded version of the‘world factory’and fully realize a high-quality,green,sustainable development with a goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions.