数字经济是否有效促进了节能和碳减排?

Did the digital economy effectively promote energy conservation and CO_(2) reduction?

中国作为世界上最大的能源消费和碳排放国,节能减排形势十分严峻。然而,数字经济发展方兴未艾。为探析数字经济发展如何影响能源消费和CO_(2)排放,该研究以中国2011—2019年30个省份面板数据为样本,运用熵值法测析各省份数字经济发展水平,构建双固定效应模型实证分析数字经济与能源消费和数字经济与碳排放间存在的正“U”型或倒“U”型关系。结果表明:①中国数字经济发展水平存在省际和区域差距,广东和东部地区数字经济发展水平最高,青海和西部地区数字经济发展水平最低;②数字经济与能源消费规模和数字经济与碳排放规模均存在显著正“U”型关系,而数字经济与能源消费结构、数字经济与能源消费效率和数字经济与碳排放效率均显著存在倒“U”型关系,数字经济发展的节能效应大于碳减排效应;③东部、中部、西部及东北地区的数字经济与能源消费规模、能源消费结构、能源消费效率和数字经济与碳排放规模、碳排放效率间的非线性关系存在异质性;④数字基础设施、数字创新环境、数字用户规模及数字产业规模对能源消费规模、能源消费结构、能源消费效率的非线性影响存在差异,对碳排放规模、碳排放效率的非线性影响亦存在差异。据此,从缩小数字经济发展水平差距、制定数字经济发展政策、改善数字创新环境,增加数字用户规模三方面提出相关政策建议,以期为中国发展数字经济的同时兼顾节能减排效应提供实证支撑和理论依据,助推实现碳达峰、碳中和目标。

As the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emitter,China faces a serious situation in energy conservation and emission reduction.However,China’s digital economy is still developing rapidly.In order to explore how the development of the digital economy affects energy consumption and CO_(2) emissions,this paper took the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2019 as a sample,used the entropy method to analyze the digital economy level of each province,and built a double fixed effect model to empirically analyze the‘positive U-shaped’or‘inverted U-shaped’relationship between the digital economy and energy or between the digital economy and CO_(2) emissions.The results showed that:①There were inter-provincial and regional differences in the level of digital economy in China.Guangdong Province and China’s eastern region had the highest level of digital economy,while Qinghai Province and the western region had the lowest level of digital economy.②Both the digital economy and ECSC and the digital economy and CESC had significant‘positive U-shaped’relationships,while the digital economy and ECST,the digital economy and ECEF,and the digital economy and CEEF all had significant‘inverted U-shaped’relationships.The energy-saving effect of the development of the digital economy was greater than the carbon emission reduction effect.③There was heterogeneity in the nonlinear relationship between the digital economy and ECSC,ECST,and ECEF,the digital economy and CESC,and CEEF in the eastern,central,western,and northeastern regions.④Digital infrastructure,digital innovation environment,digital user scale,and digital industry scale had different nonlinear effects on ECSC,ECST,and ECEF,as well as on CESC and CEEF.Accordingly,to provide empirical support and a theoretical basis for China’s development of the digital economy while taking into account the effects of energy conservation and carbon emission reduction,this study puts forward relevant policy suggestions from three aspects:narrowing the gap in the level of digital economy,formulating digital economy development policies,and focusing on key points for the development of the digital economy.These suggestions are also conducive to boosting China’s goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality.