资源型城市低碳技术进步驱动碳减排的多重异质性

Multiple heterogeneity of carbon emission reduction driven by low‑carbon technology progress in resource‑based cities

随着“双碳”目标的深入推进,不同情境下低碳技术进步驱动碳减排的异质性表现是精准减碳的重要依据。资源型城市作为同时肩负国家能源资源安全与碳减排的重要特殊主体,能否同步实现碳达峰是“双碳”目标的关键一环。文章梳理了资源型城市低碳技术进步与碳排放的相关理论文献,分析了低碳技术进步与碳排放的驱动机理,以中国116个地级资源型城市2005—2019年的面板数据为研究样本,综合考虑具有资源型城市特色的六种非期望产出来定义资源型城市的低碳技术进步,运用DEA‑Malmquist指数模型、STIRPAT模型与阈值模型,厘清资源型城市低碳技术进步与碳排放现状,深入剖析低碳技术进步与碳减排之间的驱动关系与门槛效应,并对其多重异质性进行对比分析。研究发现:样本期内,116个地级资源型城市低碳技术进步大致呈阶段性上升趋势,碳排放存在明显的区域异质性与类型异质性。资源型城市低碳技术进步对碳排放具有一定的抑制作用,且呈现类型异质性、地区异质性和双重门槛效应。在不同的门槛区间内,低碳技术对碳减排效应与碳减排回弹效应的驱动效应存在差异,国内生产总值、命令型环境规制、市场型环境规制、自愿型环境规制、产业结构、能源消费结构、外商直接投资七个控制变量对碳排放的驱动也表现各异。根据研究结论,从不同区域、不同类型资源型城市及资源型城市低碳技术进步的不同水平角度,有针对性地提出相关政策建议,旨在推动资源型城市低碳技术进步与碳减排目标的同步实现。

With the gradual implementation of strategies to achieve the goals of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality,the heterogeneous performance of low-carbon technological progress driving carbon emission reduction in different situations has become an important basis for targeted technological carbon reduction.As an important special subject of national energy resource security and carbon emission reduction,whether resource-based cities can reach peak carbon emissions simultaneously is a key to the achievement of the‘dual carbon’goals.This paper reviewed the theoretical literature on low-carbon technology progress and carbon emissions in resource-based cities,and extracted the their driving mechanisms.Based on the panel data of 116 prefecture-level resource-based cities in China from 2005 to 2019,this paper innovatively considered six undesirable outputs with resource-based city characteristics to define the low-carbon technological progress of such cities,and used the DEA-Malmquist index model,STIRPAT model,and threshold model to clarify the current situation of low-carbon technological progress and carbon emissions in resource-based cities.The study also carried out a deep analysis of the driving relationship and threshold effect between low-carbon technological progress and carbon emission reduction,and compared and analyzed their multiple heterogeneity.The study found that during the sample period,the low-carbon technology progress of these 116 prefecture-level resource-based cities showed a phased upward trend,and that carbon emissions had obvious regional heterogeneity and type heterogeneity.The progress of low-carbon technology in resource-based cities had a certain inhibitory effect on carbon emissions and presented type heterogeneity,regional heterogeneity,and a double threshold effect.In different threshold ranges,the driving effects of low-carbon technology on carbon emission reduction effect and carbon emission reduction rebound effect were different.The driving effects of other seven control variables,such as gross domestic product,commandbased environmental regulation,market-based environmental regulation,voluntary environmental regulation,industrial structure,energy consumption structure,and foreign direct investment,on carbon emissions were also different.Finally,based on the research conclusions,regarding different regional resource-based cities,different types of resource-based cities,and different levels of low-carbon technology progress in resource-based cities,policy recommendations related to low-carbon technology progress and carbon emission reduction are proposed in a targeted manner,aiming to promote the improvement of low-carbon technology progress in resource-based cities and the simultaneous achievement of carbon emission reduction targets.