“三块地”改革对县域经济发展的影响研究

Impact of “Three Plots of Land” Reform on County Economic Growth

基于2013—2018年中国县域统计数据,以“三块地”改革试点构建准自然实验,采用PSM-DID模型识别“三块地”改革试点对发展壮大县域经济的政策成效,并利用机制检验探析改革试点的作用机制。结果表明:“三块地”改革能有效释放农户消费潜力,加快县域经济发展壮大。进一步分析发现,金融发展为土地变现、缓解融资约束以及土地市场化改革提供有力支撑,加快农民消费潜力的释放;“三块地”改革释放剩余劳动力同样有效推动工业化发展,为县域经济高质量发展注入新动能。此外,“三块地”改革试点对于农业产值比例较高的县(市)政策效果相对明显。据此,建议统筹推进要素市场化配置、支持农村劳动力转移就业、推进构建农村金融新格局,在土地制度改革协同发展中探索全面推进乡村振兴的道路。

Based on the national county statistics from 2013 to 2018,this paper conducted a quasinatural experiment using the“three plots of land”pilot reform and the PSM-DID model to identify the policy effectiveness of the pilot reform on the economic growth of counties and its working mechanism.The results shows that“three plots of land”reform has effectively unlocked farmers’ consumption potential and enabled the development and growth of county economy. Further analysis reveals that financial development has provided strong support for land realisation,easing financing constraints and land market reform,accelerating the release of farmers’ consumption potential.“Three plots of land”the reform has released surplus labour to promote industrialisation and injected new momentum into the high-quality development of county economy.In addition,the policy effect of“three plots of land”reform is relatively obvious for counties(cities)with a high proportion of agricultural output.Therefore,it is suggested to promote the market allocation of factors,support the transfer of rural labour to employment,promote the construction of a new rural financial structure,and explore the path to rural revitalization through the synergistic development of land system reform.