基于“海丝”沿线国家产业转移关系的海运影响潜力研究

On Potential Influence Power of Ocean Shipping to Industrial Transfer among Countries Along 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road

在“21世纪海上丝绸之路”倡议促进中国与“海丝”沿线国家的产业贸易合作的背景下,建立引力模型,在国家GDP和两国间距离因素的基础上,引入港口联系强度和港口集装箱吞吐量等2个海运交通因素变量,选取主要影响产业转移的劳动要素、贸易环境、创新能力和政策环境等因素,利用我国与“海丝”沿线20个主要国家2011—2019年的样本数据进行实证分析,结果表明:国家GDP、港口联系强度等对我国与“海丝”沿线国家间产业转移关系起促进作用,特别在对外贸易依存度高、已加入“海丝”倡议的国家间进行转移能增大海运交通影响潜力;从区域上看,在东南亚、非洲和中东地区进行港航建设能加快我国对其产业转移进程。

The Gravity Model incorporating major factors that have impacts on industrial transfer,such as technology and labor force,is constructed and the shipping variables are introduced to the model.The empirical analysis is performed with the data from China and 20 countries along sea silk road in 2011—2019.The analysis shows that the ocean shipping featuring completeness of network,high level of port services will play important role in advancing industrial transfer,especial among the countries relying on international trading.As for geographic area,the construction of ports and development of shipping services will greatly advance the industrial transfer from China to countries in South-east Asia,Africa and Middle East.