“一带一路”投资国别风险测算、评估与防范

Country Risk Calculation,Assessment and Prevention of the Belt and Road Investment

受逆全球化、国际地缘政治变化和新冠肺炎疫情全球大流行等因素的影响,中国企业海外投资环境日趋复杂,“一带一路”投资面临的风险显著增加,因此本研究聚焦于分析中国企业对149个共建“一带一路”国家的投资风险及其防范问题。首先,本研究构建了一套包括5个维度25个指标的风险评价体系;然后确定评估模型并进行国别投资风险测算、排序与评估;接着利用“投资—风险”四象限分析法进行进一步的投资风险分析;最后,根据不同类型的东道国特征,结合风险评估结果,提出“一带一路”投资国别风险防范策略,以推动共建“一带一路”行稳致远,实现高质量发展。

Due to the global pandemic of COVID-19, and the tremendous international geo-political changes,plus anti-globalization developments, the current environment of Chinese investment into other countries turns much more complicated than before and the Belt and Road investment risk has been increasing sharply. Therefore, this paper discusses the Belt and Road investment risk and risk prevention into the 149 Belt and Road countries(BRCs). This paper firstly builds up a risk analytical framework which consists of five dimensions and 25 indicators, then calculating and evaluating the country risks of the Belt and Road investments(mostly by Chinese companies) into the 149 BRCs based a Two-layer Assessment Model;secondly, the paper continually analyzes the Belt and Road investment risks into different countries based on “investment-risk” Fourquadrant Analytical Method;finally, the paper proposes some strategies for Belt and Road investment prevention based on the analysis, in order to support high quality as well as long term sustainable development of the Belt and Road.