随机产量下种植面积补贴对订单农业的影响

Impact of planting area subsidy on contract agricultureunder random yield

构建由风险中性公司和风险厌恶农户组成的供应链,研究了考虑产量和价格随机下,面积补贴对固定价格合约(FP),市场价格合约(MP),部分保障价格合约(PGP)这三类订单农业的影响.研究发现政府面积补贴投入越大,三种合约下农户和公司的期望收益均上升,PGP合约下农户的期望收益最高而MP合约下则最低.进一步分析农户风险厌恶和产量不确定性对农户的期望收益的影响发现,农户风险厌恶程度越大其期望收益越高,但产量不确定性越大则会降低其最优种植面积和投入努力程度,进而使得农户收益降低.研究结果证明了面积补贴对农户和公司双方均有利的结论,但面积补贴会对价格产生负面影响并会导致农户的偷懒行为.

This paper establishes a supply chain composed of a risk-neutral company and a risk-averse farmer.This paper considers the random yield and price,studies the effect of area subsidy on fixed price contract(FP),market price contract(MP),and partial-guaranteed-price contract(PGP).The study finds that the expected incomes of both the farmer and the company under the three contracts increase with the area subsidy.The farmer has the highest expected income under PGP contract and the lowest under MP contract.Further,the greater the risk aversion of the farmer,the higher his expected return.The greater the uncertainty of yield,the lower the optimal planting area and planting effort;as a result,the lower the farmer’s income.The results prove that area subsidy is beneficial to both sides;however,it will lower the price and the farmer’s planting effort.