台风天气下电网薄弱线路辨识与停电事故模型

Weak Line Identification and Power Outage Accident Model of Power System under Typhoon Weather

为研究台风天气下电力系统的连锁故障演化,提高电网的应对能力,选用Yan Meng风场模型计算台风天气下输电线路的故障率。首先,结合线路潮流的停运概率模型,制定计及电网拓扑结构的线路脆弱度指标;然后,对现有停电模型进行改进,建立一种包含时间、空间、强度三要素的台风天气电网停电事故模型;最后,以宁德电网为例,仿真分析了玛莉亚台风期间该电网的薄弱线路,验证了所建模型的可行性。仿真结果表明,可用事故幂律曲线的分维值对台风天气下电网整体稳定性进行评估。

To study the chain-reaction failure evolution of power system under the typhoon weather and improve its coping capability,the Yan Meng wind field model is used to calculate the failure rate of transmission lines under the typhoon weather. Combined with the outage probability model of line power flow,the line vulnerability index is formulated by taking into account the power grid’s topological structure. A model of power grid outage accidents under the typhoon weather is established,which includes three elements,i.e.,time,space and intensity. The ND power grid is taken as an example,its weak lines during Typhoon Maria are simulated and analyzed,and the feasibility of the established model is verified. Simulation results show that the fractal dimension of the power law curve for accidents can be used to evaluate the overall stability of power grid under the typhoon weather.