资本产出率扭曲、投资结构优化与经济稳定增长

Capital-output Ratio Distortion,Investment Structure Optimization andStable Economic Growth

在中国高质量发展不断深化的背景下,投资对于供给侧结构性改革起着关键作用,资本的不当配置造成的低效率利用问题是供给结构失衡的重要原因。本文通过产业层面资本产出率扭曲来研究投资结构失衡对于经济增长的影响,提出了由资本产出率扭曲所引起的资本错配的新测度方法。本文基于测度的2004—2020年中国各产业资本错配指数,实证分析中国产业间资本错配对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明中国投资面临着结构性失衡问题,具体表现为低投资效率的产业获得高份额的投资以及高投资效率的产业没有获得足够的投资份额,从而造成了过度投资与投资不足并存的现象。中国各产业间的资本错配大约造成了实际产出与潜在产出之间9.31%的缺口。政府在优化投资结构时应当充分考虑产业间资本错配的影响,通过解决资本错配问题来发挥投资对优化供给结构的关键作用,从而确保实现经济的稳定增长。

In the context of deepening high-quality development in China,investment plays a key role in supply-side structural reform,and inefficient capital utilization caused by misallocation is a major cause of supply structure imbalance.This paper investigates the impact of investment structure imbalance on economic growth through the industry-level capital-output ratio distortion,and proposes a method to measure the misallocation caused by the distortion.Then,it empirically analyzes the impact of capital misallocation between industries on economic growth based on the measured capital misallocation index of industries in China from 2004 to 2020.The findings show that China’s investment is experiencing structural imbalance,particularly in the high share of investment in low-investment-efficiency industries and the low share of investment in high-investment-efficiency industries,resulting in the coexistence of over-investment and under-investment.Moreover,capital misallocation between industries creates a gap of about 9.31%between actual and potential output.Therefore,when optimizing the investment structure,the government should fully consider the impact of capital misallocation between industries,and give play to the crucial role of investment in improving the supply structure by resolving capital misallocation to maintain stable economic growth.