基于系统动力学的帽儿山实验林场可持续发展水平预测

Prediction of Sustainable Development Level of Maoershan Forest Farm Based on System Dynamics

建立可持续发展评价体系是研究可持续发展水平的重要手段,然而多数相关研究仅对研究区域现状进行分析,对区域未来的可持续发展趋势进行仿真预测的研究相对较少。为此,以帽儿山实验林场2004年和2016年的2期森林资源二类调查数据为基础,结合前人经验从经济、环境和社会等方面选择23项指标建立经营单位尺度可持续发展评价指标体系;通过熵权法和层次分析法(AHP)确定指标权重,采用指数加权法计算得到评价结果;并借助系统动力学方法,采用Vensim PLE软件绘制系统动力学流程图,寻找变量间的关系,构建系统动力学模型,对未来至2035年5种不同发展路径下林场的可持续发展水平进行预测。结果表明,2004年可持续发展水平为0.597,2016年为0.833,表明帽儿山实验林场已经由弱可持续阶段提升到了初级可持续阶段,呈现出了良好的发展趋势;在模拟的5种发展路径中,综合发展型可使林场的可持续发展水平于2035年达到0.924,相比于保持现状型路径(模拟水平0.899)及其他发展路径,其为更优的发展路径。

Establishing a sustainable development evaluation system was an important means to study the level of sustainable development. However, most relevant researches only analyze the current situation of the research area, and there were relatively few studies on the simulation and prediction of the future sustainable development trend of the area. Therefore, this paper selected 23 indicators from the economic, environmental, social and other aspects to establish sustainable development at the management unit scale based on the second-phase forest resources survey data of Maoershan Forest Farm in 2004 and 2016. The index weight was determined by the entropy weight method and the AHP method, and the evaluation result was calculated by the exponential weighting method;and with the help of the system dynamics method, Vensim PLE software was used to draw the system dynamics flow chart, find the relationship between variables, and construct the system dynamics model, then predicted the sustainable development level of the forest farm to 2035 under five different development paths in the future. The results showed that the sustainable development level in 2004 was 0.597, and in 2016 it was 0.833, indicating that the Maoershan Forest Farm had been upgraded from the weak sustainable stage to the primary sustainable stage, showing a good development trend. Under the five simulated development paths, the comprehensive development type can make the sustainable development level of the forest farm reach 0.924 in 2035, which was a better development path compared with the current status path simulation level of 0.899 and other development paths.