2022年国内外油气资源形势分析及展望

Domestic and international oil&gas resources situation analysis and outlook in 2022

2022年,全球经济经历了一系列动荡,面临严峻挑战。俄乌冲突和新冠肺炎疫情持续不退对全球经济前景造成了严重影响,世界经济疲弱增长,全球通胀上升。全球油气需求逐步回暖,供需总体平衡。受俄乌冲突升级、全球需求旺盛、库存低位等多重因素的影响,国际油价急剧上涨,时隔8年再度突破100美元/桶大关,2022年3月8日布伦特(Brent)原油价格一度突破130美元/桶;原油价格中高位震荡,天然气价格不断冲击历史高位;国际石油贸易格局发生结构性重塑。我国经济运行总体延续恢复态势,石油企业克服疫情多发散发等复杂困难局面,持续加大勘探开发力度,全国勘查开采投资较快增长,油气找矿取得多项重要发现,油气生产保持稳中有增的良好势头。预计2023年国际油价将高位震荡,全年在92~104美元/桶之间波动;预计2023年全年国内石油产量有望超过2.05亿t,天然气(含页岩气和煤层气)产量有望达到2250亿m 3。

In 2022,the global economy experienced a series of turbulence and faced severe challenges.The protracted Russian-Ukraine conflict and the COVID-19 epidemic have seriously affected the global economic prospects,leading to the slow growth and severe inflation in the global economy.Global oil and gas demand has gradually recovered with general balance between supply and demand.Influenced by multiple factors such as the upgrading of Russian-Ukraine conflict,strong global demand,and low inventory,the international oil prices have risen sharply.The crude oil price exceeded$100 per barrel after 8 years,and on March 8 th,2022,the price of Brent crude oil once exceeded$130 per barrel.While the price of crude oil fluctuated at a medium-high level,the natural gas has continued to create the highest historical price.The international oil trade situation has been reshaped structurally.The China s economy continues to recover.The oil companies in China overcame complex difficulties such as the frequently-occurring COVID-19 epidemic all around the country,and continue to increase exploration and development.The investment for survey and mining in China has increased rapidly,with many important discoveries in oil and gas obtained,leading to an increasing momentum in oil and gas production.It is predicted that global oil prices will fluctuate at a high level between$92 to$104 per barrel in 2023.In 2023,the oil production is expected to exceed 205 million tons,and the production of natural gas(including shale gas and coal bed gas)is expected to reach 225 billion m 3.