个体认知、群体共识与互联网众筹投资绩效——基于计算实验方法的研究

A Research into Individual Cognition,Group Consensus and Crowd-investing Performance Based on the Computational Experiment Method

区别于现有大量从项目发起人“筹资”视角的研究,本文另辟蹊径将互联网众筹视为一种“用钱投票”的群体投资决策工具。基于众筹投资的“草根性”“民主性”和“多重性”等特征,本文将其群体决策过程抽象为“独立决策”“信念聚合”和“共识涌现”三个重要阶段。进一步,引入计算实验方法对上述静态特征和动态过程进行建模,并对实验运行数据进行多维度微观计量分析。研究结果表明,个体认知异质性和群体共识形成机制是决定众筹投资绩效的关键因素,具体而言:(1)成员差异性有利于“中和”个体认知偏差,对于个体能力因素具有“替代效应”;当众筹投资人数量较多时,成员差异性甚至比能力更重要。(2)众筹融资阈值的“筛选效应”有利于投资人群体实现“优中选优”的效果,且融资阈值(即共识门槛)越高筛选效果越好;因此从投资人视角,采用AON机制总是优于KIA机制。(3)众筹投资难度对成员差异性的“替代效应”具有调节作用。当前产业实践中,AON机制流行于各大众筹平台而KIA机制则日渐式微,本文试图给出一个全新理论解释,并以期丰富和发展互联网环境下的群体决策理论。

From the investors’ perspective,crowdfunding is fundamentally about selecting ideas by aggregating individual judgments into a group decision under uncertainty.Compared with traditional investment activities,crowd-based investment is characterized by being grass-rooted,democratic and diversified.Based on these characteristics,this paper further divides the crowdfunders’ decision-making process into three stages:independent decision-making,belief aggregation and consensus emergence.A computational experimental method is introduced to simulate the crowdfunding practices.The results show that the cognition heterogeneity of investors and the formation mechanism of group consensus are the key factors determining the performance of crowd-investing.Specifically speaking,(1) the group diversity can act as alternative to ability.When the number of crowdfunders is large,group diversity is even more important than ability.(2) The financing threshold is conducive to narrowing down the choices and screening the good projects,and the higher the financing threshold(i.e.the consensus level),the better the screening effect.Therefore,from the perspective of investors,AON is always better than KIA.(3) Increasing difficulty of assessment may weaken the effect of cognition heterogeneity.