人口老龄化:产业结构转型升级“契机”或“阻力”——基于供求双维机制分析

Does Population Aging Bring Opportunities or Resistance to the Transformation and Upgrading of Industrial Structure?An Analysis Based on the Two-dimensional Mechanism of Supply and Demand

在实现经济高质量发展的目标下,以人口老龄化为背景,在对产业结构转型升级进行产业升级、协调与转型的三维度划分下,探析人口老龄化通过劳动供给与消费需求的双向路径影响产业结构转型升级的理论机理,并利用1997—2018年的省域面板数据,构建动态面板模型,使用SYS-GMM估计法估计得出:(1)人口老龄化既是产业结构转型升级的“契机”又是“阻力”,表现在人口老龄化会促进产业升级,倒逼产业转型,但却会阻碍产业协调。(2)从劳动供给路径分析,老龄化倒逼劳动供给质量提升,为产业结构转型升级带来“契机”,但也会通过降低劳动供给数量,阻碍产业协调,为产业结构转型升级带来“阻力”。(3)从消费需求路径分析:消费需求总量变动效应强化了人口老龄化对产业协调的阻滞作用,但也增强了其对产业升级与转型的推动作用,同时,人口老龄化能通过提升消费需求层次转“阻力”为“契机”,全面推进产业结构转型升级。

Given the national goal of high-quality economic development and the problem of population aging,this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of how population aging influences the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure through labor supply and consumption demand from three dimensions:industrial upgrading,coordination and transformation,and builds a dynamic panel mode based on provincial panel data from 1997 to 2018.The following conclusions are drawn through SYS-GMM estimation method:(1)Population aging brings both opportunities and resistance to the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure as it can promote industrial upgrading and force industrial transformation on the one hand but hinders industrial coordination on the other hand.(2)Seen from the labor supply path,population aging will bring about“opportunities”for the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure by forcing the improvement of the quality of labor supply,but the resultant reduction of labor supply will retard industrial coordination to the detriment of industrial structure transformation and upgrading.(3)Seen from the path of consumption demand,change of total consumption demand will amplify the retardant effect of population aging on industrial coordination,but enhances its role in promoting industrial upgrading and transformation.At the same time,population aging can turn“resistance”into“opportunities”and fully promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure so long as consumption demands are driven to a high level.