中国金融稳定的地区异质性测度及其治理

Research on the Measurement of Regional Heterogeneity and Governance of China’s Financial Stability

地区金融稳定是宏观金融稳定的基础,地区金融风险的波动及其治理将直接影响宏观金融体系的稳定。本文基于2015—2019年省级层面的中频数据,选取来自主要风险领域的十四项基础指标合成了我国31个省级行政区季度频率的地区金融稳定指数,刻画了造成各地区金融稳定发展异质性的重要风险特征,并揭示了其背后的风险因素。研究发现2015—2019年,我国整体金融稳定运行趋势不容乐观,但不同省级行政区的金融稳定运行状况存在显著的空间异质性,且不同时段突出的主要金融风险也有所不同。在中国金融稳定地区异质性测度的基础上,本文提出促进地区内金融资源的空间适度集中、引导地区金融与实体经济发展水平相匹配、强化对阶段性突出风险的管控是地区金融风险治理可具体采用的三大长效措施。

Regional financial stability is the foundation of macro-financial stability.The fluctuation of regional financial risks and their governance will directly affect the stability of the macro-financial system.Based on the provincial-level intermediate frequency data from 2015 to 2019,this paper selects 14 basic indicators from eight major risk areas to synthesize the financial stability index of 31 provinces in China with quarterly frequency,depicting the important risk characteristics that cause the heterogeneity of financial stability and development of each province,and revealing the risk factors behind it.This study finds that from2015 to 2019,China’s overall financial stability operation is not optimistic.Significant spatial heterogeneity can be found in the financial stability operation of different provinces and regions,and the main financial risks that stand out in different periods are also different.The study concluded that promoting the appropriate concentration of regional financial resources,guiding regional finance to match the development level of the real economy,and strengthening the management and control of prominent risks in stages are the three longterm measures that can be implemented in regional financial risk management.