中国工业产品双循环的测度及时空演化分析

Measurement and Spatial-temporal Evolution of Dual Circulation of Industrial Products in China

文章基于投入产出模型,构建中国工业产品双循环指数测算体系,测算了2015—2020年中国31个省份的工业产品双循环指数并研究工业产品双循环指数的时空演变特征,分析各省份工业产品双循环指数的空间相关性。研究发现,中国工业产品双循环以内循环为主,以外循环为辅,内循环在波动中趋于加强;各地区工业产品内循环指数呈现东北高、西北和东南低的特征,外循环指数呈现东北低、西北和东南高的特征;各省份双循环指数的空间集聚特征呈现明显的区域分化。

Based on the input-output model,this paper constructs a calculation system for the dual circulation index of China’s industrial products,calculates the dual circulation index of industrial products in 31 provinces of China from 2015 to 2020,and then studies the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics.Finally,the paper analyzes the spatial correlation of the dual circulation index of industrial products in each province.The study finds that the dual circulation of industrial products in China is dominated by domestic circulation,supplemented by foreign circulation,the domestic circulation tending to strengthen amid fluctuations,that the domestic circulation index of industrial products in various regions shows a trend of being high in the northeast and low in the northwest and southeast,while the foreign circulation index shows a trend of low in the northeast and high in the northwest and southeast,and that the spatial agglomeration characteristics of the dual circulation index in each province present obvious regional differentiation.