南疆脱贫农户返贫风险评价研究——以和田地区Y乡为例

Study on the risk evaluation of poverty-returning farmers in Southern Xinjiang:Taking Y Township in Hotan Prefecture as an example

以和田地区Y乡276户脱贫农户为研究对象,构建了包含收入、健康、教育、就业、资源、社会网络6个一级指标及22个二级指标的返贫风险评价指标体系,采用层次分析法和CRITIC权重法相结合确定权重,对该区域脱贫农户返贫风险情况进行了分析评价。结果表明,主客观赋权法结合下的综合权重更具可参考性与实用性;指标体系中就业、社会网络、收入权重较大,其中劳动力国家通用语言掌握水平、家中劳动力就业多样性、政府帮扶度等是对Y乡脱贫农户返贫影响较大的因素;样本农户中主体部分为返贫风险较低的B级农户,较高风险的C级农户与高返贫风险的D级农户分别占比27.17%、0.73%,需要及时干预防控。

Taking 276 poverty-stricken farmers in Y Township,Hotan Prefecture as the research object,a poverty-returning risk evaluation index system was constructed,including six primary indicators of income,health,education,employment,resources and social network,and 22 secondary indicators.The weight was determined by combining the analytic hierarchy process and the CRITIC weighting method,and the risk of returning to poverty of the poverty-stricken farmers in the region was analyzed and evaluated.The research results showed that the comprehensive weights under the combination of subjective and objective weighting methods were more referable and practical.The employment,social network and income weights in the index system had a large weight,among which the national common language mastery level of the labor,the diversity of employment at home and government assistance were the factors that had a greater impact on the return of poverty-stricken farmers in Y Township.The main part of the sample farmers was B-level farmers with a low risk of returning to poverty,and higher-risk C-level farmers and high-risk D-level farmers account for 27.17%and0.73%respectively,which required timely intervention and control.