新冠疫情以来巴西能源政策新变化对国际食糖市场的影响

The Impact of New Changes in Brazil's Energy Policy on the International Sugar Market since COVID-19

作为全球食糖的最大出口国、全球第二大生物燃料生产国和消费国,巴西能源政策变化对该国碳减排进程和全球食糖供应均影响深远。本文通过新冠疫情以来巴西能源政策调整内容及其对食糖和乙醇供需影响的分析,探究了巴西能源政策调整对国际食糖市场的影响,主要得出几个结论:第一,巴西能源政策调整包括国家生物燃料政策、乙醇和汽油政策调整,影响油醇比价和糖醇比价;第二,巴西能源政策和原油价格大幅波动,加速全球食糖供求调整时间,加剧食糖供应的不确定性;第三,巴西能源政策和CBIO价格变化成为国际糖价新的影响因素,加剧糖价波动,食糖供应更敏感。未来展望看,巴西总统卢拉上任对巴西能源政策和糖市的影响还不确定;短期看,现行能源政策下2022/23年榨季全球糖市预计增产且供给过剩可能较大;长期看,和2021/22年榨季相比,2031/32年榨季全球产糖量有所增长,巴西将贡献全球食糖产量的24%、甘蔗乙醇产量的83%和食糖贸易的49%。

As the world's largest sugar exporter and the world's second largest biofuel producer and consumer,Brazil's energy policy changes have a profound impact on domestic carbon emission reduction process and global sugar supply.Based on the analysis of the content of Brazil's energy policy adjustment and its influence on the supply and demand of sugar and ethanol since the COVID-19 pandemic,this paper explores the impact of Brazil's energy policy adjustment on the international sugar market,and mainly draws several conclusions:First,Brazil's energy policy adjustment includes national biofuel policy,ethanol and gasoline policy,which affects the oil-alcohol price and sugar-alcohol price;Second,Brazil's energy policy combined with the sharp fluctuation of crude oil prices accelerated the adjustment time of global sugar supply and demand and exacerbated the uncertainty of sugar supply;Third,Brazilian energy policy and CBIO price changes become new influencing factors of international sugar price,which aggravates sugar price fluctuations and makes sugar supply more sensitive.Looking ahead,the impact of the inauguration of Brazilian President Lula on Brazil's energy policy and sugar market is uncertain.In the short term,the global sugar market is expected to increase production and the supply surplus may be large in the 2022/23 season under the current energy policy;In the long term,compared with the crushing season in 2021/22,the global sugar production will increase in 2031/32,with Brazil contributing 24%of global sugar production,83%of sugarcane ethanol production and 49%of sugar trade.