常导高速磁浮交通项目速度目标值探讨

Discussion on Speed Target Value of Normal Conducting High-speed Maglev Transport-ation Project

以常导高速磁浮交通系统为基础,提出高速磁浮交通系统速度目标值的分析理论和方法。首先,从系统投入方面分析了速度目标值对土建工程投资和车辆购置费的影响;其次,从运输经济学角度,分析了旅客作为消费者对交通工具的选择行为,探讨了磁浮列车服务水平(速度和票价)、项目长度(出行距离)、旅客时间价值和其他交通竞争者的服务品质等因素对磁浮交通市场份额的影响;最后,基于技术经济学方法,分析了速度目标值对磁浮交通建设项目投资效益的影响,并以项目经济效益最大化为目标,探求速度目标值的最佳决策。以某虚拟项目为案例进行演算,获得该项目的最佳速度目标值为520 km/h。

With normal conducting high-speed maglev transportation system as basis,the theory and method for analyzing the target speed of high-speed maglev transportation system is proposed.First,the influence of target speed on civil engineering investment and vehicle purchase cost are analyzed from systematic investment perspective.Then,the behaviors of passengers choose as consumers in choosing transportation means are analyzed from transportation economics angle.How factors including maglev train service level(speed and fare),project length(travel distance),passenger time value and service quality of other transportation competitors impact the market share of maglev transportation is discussed.Finally,based on technical economics method,the influence of target speed on the investment benefits of maglev transportation construction project is analyzed.The optimal target speed decision-making strategy is pursued,aiming to maximize the project economic benefits.A virtual project is taken as study case for calculation and the optimal target speed of the project comes out to be 520 km/h.