铁路候补购票兑现问题优化模型研究

Research on Optimization Model for Cashing Railway Alternate Ticket Purchase

中国国家铁路集团有限公司推出了候补购票功能,取得了良好效果,但在实际运行过程中,兑现规则以人工经验为主、客观性不足。为了更好的发挥候补购票功能,以不降低当前时点列车整体收益为目标,提出一种基于量化计算的候补购票兑现优化模型,首先将候补订单拼接变长减少计算量;其次,根据贝叶斯公式得到在已售出票额数量条件下的旅客购票概率分布函数,同时基于效用函数模拟旅客在不同列车间的选择;最后以整车期望收益最大化为目标构建出候补购票兑现优化模型并求解。结果表明,提出的优化模型比对比方案增加4.32%。同时多兑现9张候补购票订单,实现旅客和国铁集团的“双赢”,极大地改进和完善了目前的候补购票兑现规则。

The alternate ticket purchase function launched by China State Railway Group Co.Ltd.(CR)has achieved good results.However,in actual operation,there are still many deficiencies in the cashing rules that are mainly based on human experience.In order to make the function of alternate ticket purchase work better,aiming at cashing the alternate ticket purchase order without reducing the revenue of the trains at the current time,this paper proposed an alternate ticket purchase cashing optimization model based on quantitative calculation.First,the alternate ticket purchase order was spliced and lengthened to reduce the amount of calculation.Second,the probability distribution function of passenger ticket purchase under the condition of the number of sold tickets was obtained according to the Bayes formula,while the choice of passengers between different trains was simulated based on the utility function.Finally,to maximize the expected revenue of the whole vehicle,the alternate ticket purchase cashing optimization model was constructed and solved.The results show that the optimization model proposed in this paper improves the income of the comparison scheme by 4.32%and cashes 9 more alternate ticket orders,realizing a"win-win"between passengers and CR,and greatly improving the current alternate ticket purchase cashing rules.