美联储加息缩表对我国制造业的溢出效应分析

Analysis of spillover effect of U.S. interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction on the manufacturing industry of China

2022年3月以来,美联储已连续宣布7次加息,并启动缩表进程。这次加息缩表是史上最快一次,旨在应对持续不减的通胀压力,引发全球市场连锁效应。加息缩表对我国制造业重点领域产生严重溢出效应,表现为受国际贸易萎缩影响,制造业对外贸易困难加大;受大宗商品价格波动影响,制造业成本控制难度增加;受汇率分化影响,制造业出口及投资机遇与挑战并存。建议坚持“以我为主”的货币政策基本原则,密切关注国际货币政策走向;降低企业生产经营成本,强化制造业减税降费融资支持力度;依托制造业国际合作政策红利,推动制造业进出口提质增效。

Since March 2022, the U.S. Federal Reserve has announced seven consecutive interest rate hikes and started the process of shrinking its balance sheet. The fastest rate hike and balance sheet reduction in history, which triggers a chain effect in the global market, are aimed at coping with unabated inflationary pressures. The increase of interest rates and the reduction of the balance sheet have a serious spillover effect on the key areas of China’s manufacturing industry. Due to the contraction of international trade, difficulties in foreign trade of the manufacturing industry are increased. Affected by the commodity price fluctuations, manufacturing cost control becomes more difficult. Affected by the divergence of exchange rate, opportunities and challenges of manufacturing export and investment coexist. We suggest adhering to the basic principle of “self-centered” monetary policy and paying more attention to the trend of international monetary policy. We should reduce the production and operation costs of enterprises, and strengthen the financing support, offer more tax reduction and fee reduction to manufacturing industry. Last, we should rely on international cooperation policy of the manufacturing industry to promote the industry to improve import and export efficiency.