宜居水平对超大特大城市人口规模的影响效应研究——基于全国第七次人口普查数据

Study on the Effect of Livability on the Population Size of Mega Cities

在回顾宜居城市评价体系的基础上,建立了适用于国内21所超大与特大城市宜居水平的评价框架,并对其宜居水平进行测量;采用因子分析法简化宜居因子变量,进一步考察宜居性对城市人口规模的影响作用机理。研究结果表明:生态环境、公共服务、人口状况和经济发展四个维度能够很好地反映出城市宜居状况;得益于经济发展实力和公共服务供给水平方面的突出优势,超大城市宜居水平明显高于特大城市;通过回归分析可知,经济发展因子叠加公共服务因子的效用对于人口规模的解释力度较强,这进一步验证了“七人普”结果中城市人口规模变动的原因。为在激烈的人才争夺战中保持竞争力,超大与特大城市仍需从经济可持续发展、居民生活质量提升和公共服务供需匹配角度持续发力,不断提升宜居水平。

On the basis of reviewing the evaluation system of livable cities,an evaluation framework applicable to the livability level of 21 super large and mega cities in China was established and their corresponding livability level was measured;The factor analysis method is used to simplify the livability factor variables,and further investigate the impact mechanism of livability on urban population size.The results show that the four dimensions of ecological environment,public services,population status and economic development can well reflect the livable status of cities;Thanks to the outstanding advantages in terms of economic development strength and public service supply level,the livability level of mega cities is significantly higher than that of super large cities;Through regression analysis,it can be seen that the influence of economic development factors plus public service factors has a strong explanation for the population size,which further verifies the reasons for the change of urban population size in the"Seventh National Population Census"results.In order to remain competitively favourable in the fierce competition for talents,super large cities and mega-cities still need to continue to make efforts from the perspective of sustainable economic development,improvement of residents'quality of life,and matching supply and demand of public services,and constantly improve the livable level.