突发公共卫生事件背景下城市医疗救治应急空间供需研究

Supply and Demand Research on Urban Emergency Treatment Places Against the Background of Public Health Emergencies

公共卫生问题推动了现代城市规划的诞生与发展,面对快速城市化伴随的公共健康风险,本文尝试从公共卫生的视角寻求解决思路。本文基于传染病动力学SIR模型,在突发公共卫生事件背景下模拟感染者的变化曲线,尝试构建医疗救治应急空间的供需关系模型。以深圳市龙岗区为例,绘制可视化感染数变化图谱,参考武汉“抗疫”成功经验,比照城市应急避难场所,寻找适宜的医疗救治应急空间,并从供需关系的角度探讨适宜医疗救治应急空间的承载力及需求量,以期为推动突发公共卫生事件防控纳入城市防灾减灾规划提供参考。

Public health issues have triggered the birth and development of modern urban planning. This paper attempts to seek solutions from the perspective of public health when facing public health emergencies accompanied by rapid urbanization. Following the SIR epidemiological model, this paper previews the growth curve of infections under outbreak of epidemics, and attempts to construct a "supply and demand" model between the emergency treatment places and infected persons. Taking Longgang District of Shenzhen as an example, the paper visualizes the change in the number of infected persons and seeks potential emergency treatment places while comparing with urban emergency shelters as well as referring to the successful experience of containing COVID-19 in Wuhan. It also discusses carrying capacity and demand of potential emergency treatment places from the perspective of "supply and demand", which expects to provide reference for promoting the prevention and control of public health emergencies into the consideration of urban disaster prevention and reduction planning.