不同沉降预测方法在改扩建路基中的应用

Application of Different Settlement Prediction Methods in Subgrade for Reconstruction and Expansion

【目的】改扩建工程中新路基沉降的准确预测至关重要。【方法】依托沪陕高速公路合肥至大顾店段改扩建工程,首先选择试验段对新路基沉降进行实测;然后分析了星野法、GM(1,1)和二者的组合法等三种沉降预测方法的预测效果。【结果】结果表明:GM(1,1)在预测后期结果偏大,星野法比GM(1,1)法预测效果好,与两个独立的预测模型相比,GM(1,1)-星野法预测模型预测准确率更高。【结论】研究成果可为类似工程提供借鉴。

[Purposes]It is very important to accurately predict the settlement of new subgrade in reconstruction and expansion project.[Methods]This study relies on the reconstruction and extension project of Hefei-Dgudian section of Shanghai-Shaanxi Expressway.Firstly,the test section is selected to measure the settlement of the new subgrade.[Findings]Three subsidence prediction methods are used to analyze the test reslts(Hushino method,GM(1,1)and their combination method).It shows that GM(1,1)is larger in the later stage of prediction.The prediction result of Hushino method is more accurate than that of GM(1,1).Compared with two independent prediction models,the prediction accuracy of GM(1,1)-Hushino method is higher.[Conclusions]The research results can provide reference for similar projects.