基于系统动力学的邻避行为仿真研究

Research on Simulation of NIMBY Behavior Based on System Dynamics

【目的】随着我国工业化和城市化进程的不断加快,公众基础设施的建设需求也在逐渐增多。其中,环境敏感性设施屡遭附近居民的抗议,从而引发邻避行为,为了化解此行为而进行仿真研究。【方法】邻避行为具有利益主体多元化、因果关系复杂化、行为演变动态化等系统性特征,本研究运用系统动力学方法,以建设垃圾焚烧发电设施引起的邻避行为为例,剖析不同影响因素下公民、政府和媒体的相互作用及行为演化过程。【结果】仿真结果与事件发展趋势较为一致,符合现实情况,模型模拟有效。【结论】邻避设施的选址和媒体新闻发布速度对公民抵抗情绪的影响显著,政府开拓公民利益诉求渠道,并加快响应时间,能有效缓和邻避行为程度。

[Purposes]With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization in China,the demand for public infrastructure construction is gradually increasing,but environmental sensitive facilities have been frequently protested by nearby residents,resulting in NIMBY behavior,simulation study was conducted to resolve this behavior.[Methods]NIMBY behavior is characterized by diversified interest subjects,complicated causal relationship,dynamic behavior evolution and other systematic characteristics.This paper uses the system dynamics method to analyze the interaction and behavior evolution process among citizens,government and media under different influencing factors,taking the NIMBY behavior caused by the construction of waste incineration power generation facilities as an example.[Findings]The simulation results were consistent with the development trend of the event,and the model simulation was effective.[Conclusions]The location of NIMBY facilities and the speed of media news release have a significant impact on the sentiment of civil resistance,and the government can effectively alleviate the degree of NIMBY behavior by opening up the channels of citizens′interest appeals and speeding up the response time.