面向地震设防风险的未来中国城乡人口情景及暴露特征

Analysis of urban and rural population scenarios and exposure characteristics in China in the future for the prevention of earthquake risk

中国城镇和乡村住房建筑地震设防水平差距较大,暴露在低设防农村与高密集城镇下的人口因此面临较高的地震风险,面向地震设防风险分析未来城乡人口及暴露特征具有重要意义。本文基于地震烈度区划图和人口-发展-环境(PDE)模型,模拟分析了5种共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下的未来城乡人口地震灾害时空暴露。结果表明:(1)除SSP3下城镇人口数量持续增加外,其他SSP情景下各地区城镇人口数量均先增后降,农村人口数量受城镇化影响呈持续下降趋势;(2)城镇与农村地震灾害高、较高人口暴露等级空间分布相似,集中在华北、西南与东部沿海地区;(3)相较于有设防的城镇地区,无设防农村地震人口暴露等级偏高,高暴露、较高暴露等级的数量偏多,未来城镇人口暴露等级有所上升,而农村人口暴露等级逐渐降低。

There is a huge gap between the seismic fortification level of urban and rural housing buildings in China.The population exposed to low fortification rural areas and high-density cities are faced with high seismic risk.Therefore,it is of great significance to analyse the future urban and rural population and their exposure characteristics.Based on the data of the sixth national population census,this paper uses seismic intensity distribution and the population development environment(PDE)model to simulate the urban and rural population exposure to earthquake disaster of China’s city level units from 2010 to 2100 under five shared socio-economic scenarios(SSPs).The results show that:(1)Except for the continuous increase of urban population under SSP3,other SSP paths’number of urban population in various regions increased first and then decreased,and rural population is declining due to urbanization;(2)The spatial distribution of high and medium high population exposure levels in urban and rural areas is similar,concentrated in North China,southwestern and eastern coastal areas of China;(3)Compared with fortified urban areas,the exposure level of non-fortified rural areas is high,and the number of high exposure areas are large.In the future,the exposure level of urban population will rise,while the exposure level of rural population will gradually decrease.