乌鲁木齐市城镇化与耕地保护的协调性评价及预测

Evaluation and Prediction of Coordination Between Urbanization and Cultivated Land Protection in Urumqi

分析城镇化与耕地耦合协调性,并预测未来发展情况,为区域经济高质量发展与粮食安全协调发展提供相关决策参考。以乌鲁木齐市为研究对象,基于2008—2019年社会经济统计数据,从城镇化和耕地保护2个方面选择5项指标,采用熵权法确定各指标间的权重,运用耦合协调度模型评价区域城镇化和耕地保护的耦合协调性,选用GM (1,1)灰色系统模型预测探讨2025年耦合协调性发展情况。结果表明,(1)2008—2019年期间,乌鲁木齐市城镇化指数呈递增趋势,耕地保护指数呈“先上升,后下降”的趋势,城镇化和耕地保护耦合协调度相对来说较低,最好时协调性值为0.3,处于中度失调类型。(2)预测2025年,乌鲁木齐市城镇化指数将达到0.97,耕地保护指数为0.08,城镇化和耕地保护耦合协调度为0.54,达到勉强协调类型。构建城镇化与耕地协调发展机制,建立健全耕地保护与监管机制,保证经济高质量发展的同时,确保粮食安全。

Analyze and evaluate the coupling and coordination between urbanization and cultivated land, in addition, predict the future development to provide policy decision for the coordinated development of high-quality economic development and food security.Taking Urumqi as the research object, based on the socio-economic statistical data from 2008 to 2019, this paper establishes two dimensions and five index systems of urbanization and cultivated land protection. Adopt the entropy weight method to determine the weight of each index, adopt the coupling coordination degree model to evaluate the coupling coordination of regional cultivated land protection and urbanization, finally selects the Grey System Model GM(1,1)predicts and discusses the development of coupling and coordination in 2025. The result shows that,(1) from 2008 to 2019,the urbanization index of Urumqi showed an increasing trend, and the cultivated land protection index displays the tendency“rising up at the beginning and declining in late”. The coupling coordination degree of urbanization and cultivated land protection is relatively lower, and the best coordination value is 0.3, which is fall into Moderate disorders section.(2) It is predicted that by 2025, the urbanization index of Urumqi will reach 0.97, the cultivated land protection index will be 0.08, and the coupling coordination degree of urbanization and cultivated land protection will be 0.54, reaching the barely coordinated type. Therefore, we must build a coordinated development mechanism between urbanization and cultivated land,establish and improve the cultivated land protection and supervision mechanism, so as to ensure high-quality economic development and food security.