基于模糊证据权的云南省金矿储备矿产地分析方法

Analysis method of gold reserve mineral deposit in Yunnan Province based on fuzzy evidence weight

储备矿产地对保障资源稳定供应和国民经济可持续发展具有重要的战略意义,现有定性划分储备矿产地方法难以提供可靠的量化依据.为了辅助我国正在开展的战略性矿产资源储备工作,本文在已有定性评价原则的基础上,综合考虑矿产资源有利地段的基础地质、自然地理、交通、经济、地质灾害、化探异常等多元数据,提出了基于模糊证据权的定量化储备矿产地分析模型与评价方法,构建了储备矿产地评价指标体系,以金矿最小预测区、火山岩、构造(断裂)等作为主要证据层进行计算,评价适宜作为储备矿产地的最佳区域.以云南省金矿为例进行验证,分别使用模糊证据权模型和层次分析模型计算有利度.共圈定出祥云人头箐金矿、鹤庆北衙金矿等9处有利储备矿产地作为候选,与已知成矿规律吻合度高.两种方法定量化评价结果与排序情况总体基本一致,其中模糊证据权法的局部效果多处优于层次分析法结果,证明了本文所提方法的正确性与科学性,可为本省或其他省份各矿种的矿产地储备评价提供技术支持.

Mineral reserve deposit have important strategic significance to ensure the stable supply of resources and the sustainable development of national economy.At present,it is difficult to provide reliable quantitative basis for the determination of mineral reserve deposit.In order to assist the ongoing strategic mineral resources reserve work in China,base on the existing qualitative evaluation principles,this paper comprehensively considers the multivariate data of basic geology,natural geography,transportation,economy,geological disasters,geophysical and geochemical anomalies and other favorable sections of mineral resources,puts forward the quantitative analysis model and method of mineral reserve deposit based on fuzzy evidence weight,and constructs the evaluation index system.The minimum prediction area of gold mine,magmatic rock and structure(fault)are taken as the main evidence layers for calculation,to evaluate the best areas as mineral reserve deposits.Taking the gold mine in Yunnan Province as an example,the fuzzy weight of evidence model and analytic hierarchy process model(AHP method)are used to calculate the favorable degree respectively.A total of 9 favorable reserve ore producing areas have been delineated as candidates,such as Xiangyun Renqing gold mine and Heqing Beiya gold mine,which are highly consistent with the known metallogenic laws.The quantitative evaluation results of the two methods are basically consistent with the ranking.The local effect of the fuzzy evidence weight method is better than that of the analytic hierarchy process.It proves that the method proposed in this paper is correct and scientific,and can provide technical support for the evaluation of mineral reserve in Jiangxi or other provinces.