2022年11月全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情风险评估

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 pandemic in November 2022

目的评估2022年11月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情全球流行情况及对我国的输入风险。方法根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学公开发布的每日COVID-19疫情数据,结合牛津大学发布的政策严格性指数,采用流行病学描述方法,通过总体概述、WHO各区及重点国家疫情趋势综合评估和周边十四国疫情与防控政策综合分析,对全球COVID-19疫情风险进行综合、全面与及时的评估。对于各国评估结果,用“全球重点关注国家”、“WHO各分区一般关注国家”和“周边特别关注国家”予以表示。结果与2022年10月相比,全球11月新增确诊病例上升了1.6%,新增死亡病例下降了1.6%。除欧洲区和东地中海区新增确诊病例增长率分别下降41.4%和34.1%,其余各区均有不同程度的上升趋势,增幅在19.6%~122.2%之间;新增死亡病例除东南亚区和西太平洋区分别上升171.8%和17.5%,其余各区均有不同程度的下降,降幅在2.4%~27.3%之间。日本、韩国、美国、中国、巴西、澳大利亚和希腊为全球重点关注国家。结论全球新增确诊病例11月整体呈小幅上升趋势,美洲区(南)、非洲区和西太平洋区疫情加重,应予以重点关注,及时沟通并调整防控措施。

Objective To assess the global epidemic of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in November 2022 and the risk of importation.Methods According to the daily COVID-19 data publicly released by Johns Hopkins University,combined with the policy stringency index published by the University of Oxford,an epidemiological description method was used to provide a comprehensive and timely assessment of the global epidemic risk through a general overview,a comprehensive assessment of the epidemic trends in WHO regions and key countries,as well as a comprehensive analysis of the epidemic and prevention and control policies in 14 neighboring countries.The assessment results for each country are expressed as“countries of global concern”,“countries of the general concern in each WHO sub-region”and“neighboring countries of special concern”.Results Compared with October 2022,the global monthly new confirmed cases increased by 1.6%,and the global monthly new deaths decreased by 1.6%.Except for the Europe region(-41.4%)and Eastern Mediterranean region(-34.1%),the number of new cases in the remaining regions increased to varying degrees(between 19.6%and 122.2%).Except for South-East Asia region(171.8%)and Western Pacific region(17.5%),the number of new deaths in the remaining regions decreased to varying degrees(between 2.4%and 27.3%).Japan,Korea,America,China,Brazil,Australia and Greece are countries of global concern.Conclusion The global daily newly confirmed cases showed an upward trend in November,especially in Americas,Africa and Western Pacific region,which should be paid special attention to,timely communicate and adjusted measures.