防范地方政府债务风险与提高资本利用率

Preventing Local Government Debt Risk and Improving Capital Efficiency

本文通过梳理地方债务问题的根源及现状,详细测算了疫情后地方政府债务的结构和规模变化,考察了地方债务尤其是隐性债务对宏观金融风险、实体融资效率的影响,并据此提出政策建议。研究发现,疫情后我国地方债务未见明显恶化,但包含了隐性债务的广义地方负债率较高,涉及的企业和金融机构甚广,融资平台的资金使用效率不高,中长期债务风险应予重视。监管方面,短期内收紧地方债融资不宜激进,中长期应继续削弱隐性担保,并从制度根源上推进财税体系和破产法改革,加强金融基础设施建设。

This study analyzes the origin and status of China’s local government debt, and its structural change after the COVID-19 pandemic. Also, it evaluates the effect of local government debt on financial risk and capital efficiency, especially for implicit debt, and provides regulatory suggestions. It finds the debt problem didn’t deteriorate after COVID-19, but the debt ratio including the implicit part is much too high. More notably, too many firms and financial institutions are involved, while the capital efficiency of most local government financing vehicles is low. In the long run, the debt risk is of concern, and the implicit guarantee should be weakened, while in the short run, drastic changes in local debt financing are unlikely. Risks will not be dispelled without thorough reform of the fiscal system and the bankruptcy law, alongside a strengthened financial infrastructure.