地方财政压力与融资平台举债——基于“营改增”全面推广的研究

Local Fiscal Pressure and Local Government Financing Platform Debt:Evidence from the Reform of Replacing Business Tax with Value-added Tax in 2016

本文从财政分权和财政压力的两个角度研究地方融资平台债务的形成机制以及扩张路径,通过分析地方财政收入的结构变化揭示了2016年“营改增”全面推广对于地方财政压力的影响。基于2009—2018年间地级市“城投债”数据的回归分析表明,财政压力与近年来融资平台大规模举债之间存在正相关性。造成这种相关性的原因可能在于,财政支持力度的减弱促使融资平台通过债务发行“借新还旧”和补充流动资金,而非用于新增基建投资。上述效应在地方主政官员晋升激励较强以及地方隐性金融分权较弱的情形下更为重要。

This paper studies the formation mechanism and expansion path of local government financing platform debt from the perspective of fiscal decentralization and fiscal pressure. By analyzing the structural changes of local fiscal revenue, this paper reveals the impact of the comprehensive promotion of replacing business tax with value-added tax on local fiscal pressure in 2016. The regression analysis based on the data of Chengtou bond of prefecture level cities from 2009 to 2018 shows that financial pressure is an important reason to promote the expansion of large-scale borrowing of local government financing platforms in recent years. The reason for this correlation may be that the weakening of financial support has prompted the local government financing vehicle to issue new debt to repay the old debt and replenish working capital, rather than to invest in new infrastructure. The above effect is more pronounced when the promotion incentive of local government officials is stronger and the local implicit financial decentralization is weaker.