土地金融、房地产税与去杠杆

Land Financing,Property Tax,and Deleveraging

近年来,中国的宏观杠杆率持续上升,对金融安全与稳定造成了一定的负面影响,引起了广泛关注。本文构建一个包含土地金融放大机制的多部门动态随机一般均衡模型,来研究房地产市场发展对杠杆率的放大作用,并评估房地产税在去杠杆过程中所发挥的作用。本文发现,地方政府采用土地金融方式进行融资放大了宏观经济波动,造成宏观杠杆上升。无论是对存量房地产还是流量房地产征税,房地产税均可以降低宏观经济波动和杠杆率。福利分析结果表明:在合理的取值范围内,房地产税税率与消费补偿呈U形关系,当房地产税税率较高时,需要补偿的消费比例较大。

In recent years,the leverage has been rising for China’s macro-economy,which poses a challenge to financial security and stability,and thus causes widespread concern.This paper constructs a multi-sector DSGE model incorporating the amplification mechanism produced by land financing to examine the reason why the leverage rises and evaluate the role of house property tax in deleveraging.We find that land financing adopted by local governments amplifies macroeconomic fluctuations,and drives up the leverage;and the house property tax levied by local governments on both stock house property and house property in circulation can mute the fluctuation in main macroeconomic variables and thus lower the leverage.The welfare analysis shows that,in a reasonable range,the house property tax rate has a U-shaped relationship with consumption compensation;and when the house property tax rate is high,the proportion of consumption to be compensated is large.