产权对投资的双刃剑效应——来自中国农村的经验证据

The Bidirectional Effect of Property Right on Investments:Evidence from Rural China

借助一套长时段的农户和地块数据,本文利用地块的“生命周期”进行生存分析测度失地风险,发现中国农地产权总体上处于低风险水平。进一步的实证分析表明,失地风险仅对农户单独投资存在微弱的负效应,对农户和外部资源的共同投资存在显著的正效应。划分投资项目后发现,失地风险的负效应源于有机肥等私人投资,而其正效应则由灌溉和土壤改良等公共投资主导。本文结果表明,在中国的土地制度下,产权不稳定暗含了集体产权更强,也促使了对具有规模经济和外部性的公共投资的供给。

This paper firstly carries out the survival analysis to measure the hazard rate of land loss by using the plots’ life cycle information involved in a long-term data set and it is found that the property right of agricultural land in China is generally at a low risk level. The results show that the land loss hazard has a slight negative effect on the household investment, but promotes the co-investment of households and external resources strongly. By classifying specific types of investment projects, it is found that the negative effect of land loss hazard originates from the private investments, such as organic fertilizer, while the positive effect of land loss hazard is reflected in public investments, such as irrigation and soil improvement. Our research reveals that, under China’s land system, property right insecurity implies strong collective property right, which promotes the supply of the public investments characterized by economics of scale and externalities.