俄乌冲突的地区及全球影响

Regional and Global Implications of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

俄乌冲突是后冷战时代乃至二战结束以来世界发展的一道分水岭,将引发欧洲、欧亚地区格局的深度演变,也将对世界秩序未来发展产生深远影响。相持不下的战事给冲突双方造成巨大损失,乌克兰饱受战火摧残,俄罗斯受到多方孤立和制裁。无论最终战局如何,俄罗斯在政治、经济和外交上都已遭遇重挫,预计未来相当长一段时间,其在国际政治和世界经济体系中的影响力将呈下行趋势。俄乌冲突也是后冷战时代欧洲安全体系所遭遇的最重大危机,将极大改变俄罗斯与欧洲之间的相互认知,导致俄欧关系的急剧变化,并引发欧洲安全格局与秩序的历史性重组。受俄乌冲突刺激,原苏联国家的“离俄倾向”潜滋暗长,欧亚地区将呈现更加多元开放的发展态势。在全球层面,俄乌冲突导致全球供应链与产业链的加速断裂与重组、全球贸易与投资规则的持续更新与再造、大国关系的进一步复杂化以及全球与地区安全架构的改革与重塑。

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has marked a watershed in the post-Cold War era and the world’s development since the end of World War II,which will not only trigger a profound evolution of the regional structure in Europe and Eurasia but will also produce a profound impact on future development of the world order.The ongoing conflict has taken a massive toll on both sides,with Ukraine ravaged by the fighting and Russia isolated and sanctioned by multiple parties.Regardless of the final outcome,Russia has suffered heavy political,economic,and diplomatic setbacks.And its influence on international politics and the world financial system is expected to be on a downward trend for quite some time to come.The conflict in Ukraine is also the most significant crisis to hit the European security system in the post-Cold War era,which will significantly change the mutual perceptions between Russia and Europe,lead to dramatic changes in Russian-European relations,and trigger a historic reorganization of the European security structure and order.Stimulated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the“tendency to leave Russia”of the former Soviet Union countries is growing,and the Eurasian region will witness a trend towards more diversified and open development.On the global scene,the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to accelerated disruption and restructuring of global supply chains and industrial chains,continuous renewal and re-engineering of worldwide trade and investment rules,further complication of major-power relations,and reform and reshaping of global and regional security structures.