不同类型脱贫户的返贫脆弱性及返贫风险预警机制

Vulnerability to Re-poverty and Its Early Warning Mechanism Based on Different Types of Households out of Poverty

返贫脆弱性与防范返贫的长效机制已经成为学术界关注的热点议题,但在绝对贫困退出背景下基于不同类型脱贫户(一般、低保以及五保脱贫户)返贫脆弱性的返贫风险预警机制研究却较为鲜见。以福建省周宁县为例,基于1499户建档立卡脱贫户全样本,通过VEP模型测算脱贫户的返贫脆弱性,并通过有序Logistic模型与OLS模型分析不同属性脱贫户返贫脆弱性的影响因素。研究结果表明:(1)低保脱贫户较之另外两类脱贫户具有更高的返贫脆弱性,返贫风险也更高。(2)户主劳动技能对一般脱贫户与低保脱贫户的返贫脆弱性有显著影响,家中老年人、在校生数量对3种属性脱贫户的返贫脆弱性均有显著影响,家庭规模与家中劳动力数量对一般脱贫户与低保脱贫户的返贫脆弱性具有显著影响。(3)户主年龄、受教育程度等个人特征变量与家庭规模、老年人数量、在校生数量等家庭特征变量显著影响样本总体的返贫脆弱性。在此基础上,通过指标预警与因素预警相结合的“双预警”法来确定监测对象的预警度,构建返贫风险预警机制,希望能够为巩固扶贫成果,建立防止返贫的长效机制提供有益借鉴。

Within the background of the exit of extreme poverty in an all-round way in China,the vulnerability to re-poverty and the long-term mechanism to prevent re-poverty based on different types of poverty-stricken households(general,subsistence and supporting allowances)have become the hot topics in the academic circle.Zhouning County in Fujian Province is taken as an example in this study.The sample size is 1499 registered households that have been lifted out of poverty.In this study,the vulnerability to re-poverty of those households is measured through VEP model.The factors affecting the vulnerability to re-poverty are analyzed through ordered Logistic model and OLS model.Compared with the other two types of poverty alleviation households,the households with subsistence allowances have higher vulnerability to re-poverty,due to higher family dependency ratio and family burden of them.It means that households with subsistence allowances tend to have more elderly people and children to support and need to spend more on maintenance and education costs than other families.At the same time,there is no enough labors to support the costs of the entire household,resulting in low income and high vulnerability to re-poverty.Therefore,the“double early warning”method that combining the index warning and factor warning is used to determine the warning degree of the monitored households and an early warning mechanism of the risk of re-poverty is constructed.Through the daily monitoring of the vulnerability to re-poverty of the monitored households,the risk of re-poverty was initially screened,and the early warning degree of re-poverty of the preliminary alerted objects is further determined through visiting and checking,then the targeted supporting measures are formulated.It is hoped to provide useful references for consolidating the achievements of poverty alleviation and establishing a long-term mechanism to prevent the re-poverty.