全球经济政策不确定性对中国经济增长的时变性影响效应研究——基于时域与频域视角分析

Time-varying effect of global economic policy uncertainty on China’s economic growth:On the time domain and frequency domain perspectives

基于时域与频域视角,深入分析全球经济政策不确定性对中国经济增长(消费、投资与进出口)的时变性影响效应。研究发现:(1)受不规则事件影响,全球经济政策不确定性指数变动频繁,对我国消费、投资与进出口产生负向为主的时变冲击。(2)不规则事件在短期对我国消费与进出口产生正负相间的“V”型时变冲击,对我国投资产生正负相间的“凹”型时变冲击。(3)极端事件的相继爆发使得全球经济政策不确定性指数在长期大幅波动,对我国消费产生正向为主的时变冲击,对我国投资产生负向时变冲击,对我国进出口贸易产生正负相间的时变冲击。(4)长期内,全球经济下行对我国消费产生最强的正向时变冲击,金融危机与全球经济下行对我国投资产生较强的负向时变冲击,金融危机对我国进出口贸易产生正向时变冲击,而全球经济下行对我国进出口贸易产生负向时变冲击。

Based on the perspective of time domain and frequency domain,this paper analyzes the time-varying effect of global economic policy uncertainty on China’s economic growth(consumption,investment,import and export).The research firstly find that affected by irregular events,the uncertainty index of global economic policies changes frequently,which mainly produces negative time-varying impact on China’s consumption,investment,import and export.Secondly,the occurrence of irregular events has a positive and negative“V”time-varying impact on China’s consumption,import and export in the short term,and a negative and positive“concave”time-varying impact on China’s investment in the short term.Thirdly,the outbreak of extreme events makes the uncertainty index of global economic policy fluctuate sharply in the long term,which mainly produces positive time-varying impact on China’s consumption and negative time-varying impact on China’s investment,and a positive and negative time-varying impact on China’s import and export trade.Fourthly,In the long run,the global economic downturn has the strongest positive time-varying impact on China’s consumption.Both the financial crisis and the global economic downturn have a strong negative time-varying impact on China’s investment.The financial crisis has a positive time-varying impact on China’s import and export trade,while the global economic downturn has a negative time-varying impact on China’s import and export trade.