基于MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS的狗脊贯众潜在分布研究

Prediction of Potential Distribution of Woodwardia japonica(L.f.) Smith Based on MaxEnt Model and ArcGIS

目的通过研究狗脊蕨Woodwardia japonica(L.f.)Sm.潜在分布预测适生分布区,为其野生资源保护及人工栽培提供依据。方法通过最大熵(MaxEnt)模型与ArcGIS对中国境内狗脊贯众进行生境适生性评价,进行模拟和预测,分析并确定影响狗脊蕨生长的因素,以确定其潜在分布地理位置。结果建立的MaxEnt模型预测结果可靠,筛选出5月降水量、最干季降水量、11月降水量、海拔和10月降水量5个生态因子为影响狗脊蕨生长的主要环境参数,累计贡献率为65.6%,其中5月降水量是影响狗脊蕨分布最主要的生态因子。ArcGIS10.2软件分析显示,高度适生区主要集中在秦岭以南、长江中上游地段及江南丘陵地段。结论MaxEnt模型预测结果与狗脊的实际分布基本一致,该研究结果有助于为狗脊贯众的资源开发利用提供科学依据。

Objective To predict the suitable growth areas of Woodwardia japonica(L.f.)Smith by studying its potential distribution;To provide a basis for the conservation of wild resources and artificial cultivation of Woodwardia japonica(L.f.)Smith.Methods MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were used to evaluate the habitat suitability of Woodwardia japonica(L.f.)Smith in China,simulation and forecasting were performed,and the factors affecting the growth of Woodwardia japonica(L.f.)Smith were analyzes and determines,which could determine its potential geographical distribution.Results The MaxEnt model was established with reliable prediction results.Five ecological factors,including precipitation in May,precipitation in the driest season,precipitation in November,altitude,and precipitation in October were selected as the main environmental parameters affecting the growth of Woodwardia japonica(L.f.)Smith,with a cumulative contribution rate of 65.6%.Among them,precipitation in May was the most important environmental factor affecting the distribution of Woodwardia japonica(L.f.)Smith.The results of ArcGIS 10.2 analysis showed that the highly suitable areas were mainly located in the south of Qinling Mountains,the middle and upper reaches of Yangtze River,and Jiangnan hills.Conclusion The prediction of the model is consistent with the actual distribution of Woodwardia japonica(L.f.)Smith.The results of this study are helpful to provide scientific basis for the development and utilization of Woodwardia japonica(L.f.)Smith.