返乡创业、产业升级与农民收入增长

Back-to-home Entrepreneurship, Industrial Upgrading and Farmers’ Income Growth

本文基于2010—2020年全国2358个县域的面板数据,以返乡创业试点这一外生政策的实施为准自然实验,采用多时点双重差分法,实证检验劳动力返乡创业对农民收入水平的影响。结果显示,返乡创业试点政策具有显著的促农增收作用,返乡创业试点县的农民收入水平相比控制组平均提升2.2%;基于安慰剂检验、排除干扰政策等多种方法进行稳健性检验,结果进一步强化了上述结论;机制分析发现,返乡创业试点政策主要是通过提升产业结构的合理化和高级化水平,推动县域产业升级,进而促进农民收入增长;异质性分析表明,在东部、南方地区以及市场环境好、融资水平高和财政能力强的县域,返乡创业试点政策对农民收入水平的提升作用更加明显。因此,应加大返乡创业试点政策实施力度,健全相关配套服务机制和保障体系,推动县域产业结构升级,进而实现农民收入持续稳定增长。

Based on panel data from 2358 counties across China from 2010 to 2020, this paper empirically examines the impact of labour force returning to their hometowns to start their own businesses on farmers’ income levels using a multi-temporal double difference method as a quasi-natural experiment with the exogenous policy of returning to their hometowns to start their own businesses. The results show that the back-to-home entrepreneurship pilot policy has a significant effect on boosting farmers’ income, with farmers’ income levels in the back-to-home entrepreneurship pilot counties increasing by an average of 2.2% compared to the control group;the results of robustness tests based on various methods such as placebo tests and exclusion of interfering policies further strengthen the above findings;the mechanism analysis reveals that the back-to-home entrepreneurship pilot policy mainly promotes the upgrading of county industries by enhancing the rationalisation and advanced level of industrial structure, which in turn promotes the growth of farmers’ income;the heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of the back-to-home entrepreneurship pilot policy on raising farmers’ income levels is more pronounced in the eastern and southern regions, as well as in counties with good market environments, high levels of financing and strong financial capacity. Therefore, the implementation of the pilot policy on returning to their hometowns should be strengthened, and the related supporting service mechanism and guarantee system should be improved, so as to promote the upgrading of the county’s industrial structure and thus achieve a sustainable and stable increase in farmers’ income.