2023年日本形势展望

The Situation and Outlook of Japan in 2023

在内外因素冲击下,日本战后和平发展路线在惯性延伸中加速转轨。岸田政府总体延续“安倍路线”,战略转型进程正朝纵深方向发展。岸田政府的战略天平向军事过度倾斜,不断突破战后体制羁绊。未来岸田执政地位将更加稳固,同时各种变数陡增。2023年日本经济下行压力加大,复苏动能明显不足:宏观经济走势不稳,经济波动性显著增强;内需难以得到提振,严重制约经济增长。2023年岸田政府在全面践行“新时代现实主义外交”的同时,将继续深化战略外交实践,外交活跃度或有提升。日本对华制衡日益凸显,但其战略逻辑存在悖论,在现实中也很难走得通。

Under the impact of internal and external factors,Japan’s post-war peaceful development has accelerated its transformation.The Kishida adminstration generally continues the“Abe Doctrine”,with Japan’s strategic transformation further developing in depth.The security strategy of the Kishida administration is excessively inclined to the military field and constantly breaks through the post-war system constraints.In the future,Kishida’s ruling position is relatively stable,but the uncertainty increases.In 2023,the downward pressure of Japan’s economy will increase,with economic volatility significantly enhancing and domestic demand difficult to boost,severely restricting the economic growth in future.While fully practicing“the realist diplomacy in the new era”,the Kishida adminstration will continue to deepen its strategic diplomacy practice.With its posture of containing China becoming obvious,however,Japan’s strategic logic of conducting its policy toward China remains paradoxical and hard to follow in reality.