2011~2020年我国危险化学品事故统计及灰色关联分析

Statistical and grey relation analysis of hazardous chemicals accidents in China from 2011 to 2020

基于化学品事故信息网公布的事故数据信息,从事故发生的月份、地域、等级、类型、板块对我国2011~2020年发生的14 087起危化品事故进行统计分析,并运用灰色关联分析法研究事故类型与季节间的相关性。结果表明,事故总体趋势为先增加后减少,2015年是事故数量最高的年份;6~8月和11~1月是事故多发月份,且春冬两季与火灾事故关联性最大,夏秋两季与爆炸事故关联度最高,其原因主要与极端天气和自然灾害影响有关;江苏、山东、广东、浙江、湖北五省是事故高发区域,与其化工产业发达有关;事故类型中泄漏事故占比最高,中毒最低;危化品在储存和运输过程中最易发生事故。根据统计分析的结果,针对性地提出合理的预防对策,以期达到减少危化品事故发生的目的。

Based on the accident data information published by the chemical accident information network, this paper makes a statistical analysis on 14 087 hazardous chemical accidents in China from 2011 to 2020 from the month, region, grade, type and plate of the accident, and uses the grey relation analysis method to study the correlation between accident types and seasons.The results show that the overall trend of accidents is to increase first and then decrease, and 2015 is the year with the highest number of accidents;June to August and November to January are accident prone months, and spring and winter have the greatest correlation with fire accidents, and summer and autumn have the highest correlation with explosion accidents.The reason is mainly related to the impact of extreme weather and natural disasters;the five provinces of Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Hubei are accident prone areas, which are related to the developed chemical industry;among the accident types, leakage accidents account for the highest proportion and poisoning accidents are the lowest;dangerous chemicals are most prone to accidents during storage and transportation.According to the results of statistical analysis, reasonable preventive countermeasures are put forward in order to reduce the occurrence of dangerous chemical accidents.