新兴养老科技产业韧性发展的演化博弈研究

Evolutionary game research on the resilience development of the emerging gerontechnology industry

面对急性冲击和慢性压力对新兴养老科技产业发展的影响,提升新兴养老科技产业韧性成为关键突破口,而产业韧性提升是一个多主体参与、多要素流动的动态复杂过程,本文基于有限理性假设,构建了新兴养老科技企业和政府在提升新兴养老科技产业韧性发展的演化博弈模型,揭示博弈双方参与行为的演化博弈关系和稳定策略。采用Netlogo软件进行多Agent建模仿真,仿真结果表明:政府采取的资金激励补贴和监督管理为推动新兴养老科技企业积极参与到产业韧性建设中起到了正向作用,有效地较少了新兴养老科技企业的投入成本;政府的资金激励成本增长促进了新兴养老科技企业参与意愿的增长,但政府应合理把控好资金激励成本的额度以应对成本投入负担风险。

Against the impact of acute shock and chronic stress on the development of the emerging gerontechnology industry,improving the resilience of this industry has become a key breakthrough and a dynamic and complex process with multi-subject participation and multi-factor flow.On the basis of the bounded rationality hypothesis,we built an evolutionary game model between the government and the enterprises of the gerontechnology industry to improve the resilience construction of this industry and revealed the evolutionary game relationship and stability strategy of the participating behaviors of both parties in the game.The software Netlogo was used for multi-Agent modeling and simulation.The simulation results show that the capital incentive subsidy and supervision and management adopted by the government play a positive role in promoting emerging gerontechnology enterprises to actively participate in constructing industrial resilience,effectively reducing the investment cost of these enterprises.The growth of the government’s capital incentive cost promotes the growth of the willingness to participate in emerging gerontechnology enterprises.However,the government should reasonably control the amount of capital incentive cost to cope with the risk of cost input burden.