江苏省私人汽车拥有量预测及其影响因素分析——基于VAR模型

Forecast of private car ownership in Jiangsu Province and analysis of its influencing factors——Based on VAR model

本文以江苏省为例,根据《江苏统计年鉴》2002~2021年的有关资料,通过计量经济学的方法,利用EVIEWS统计软件,建立了江苏省私人汽车拥有量与城镇居民可支配收入、人均GDP、年末总人口、公路里程的多元线性回归模型并进行修正。并通过VAR模型预测2022年和2023江苏省私人汽车拥有量。得出结论为:地区GDP与私人汽车拥有量大致存在正相关关系。人均GDP、年末总人口、公路里程对江苏省私人汽车拥有量有正向影响,其中年末总人口数对私人汽车拥有量的拉动效果最大。2022年以后江苏省私人汽车拥有量有望突破2000万辆。最后根据结论,本文提出相应的建议。

This paper takes Jiangsu Province as an example, according to the "Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook" from 2002 to 2021 relevant data, through the econometrics method, using the statistical software EVIEWS, established the Jiangsu Province private car ownership and urban disposable income, per capita GDP, the total population at the end of the year, road mileage multiple linear regression model and correction. The distribution lag model is used to predict the private car ownership in Jiangsu Province in 2022 and 2023. The conclusion is that there is a positive correlation between regional GDP and private car ownership. Per capita GDP, total population at the end of the year and highway mileage have a positive impact on private car ownership in Jiangsu Province, among which the total population at the end of the year has the greatest effect on private car ownership. Private car ownership in Jiangsu Province is expected to exceed 20 million after 2022. Finally, according to the conclusion, this paper puts forward the corresponding suggestions.