甲午战前日本对东三省的侦察及政策演变

Japan’s Reconnaissance and Policy Evolution of the three Northeastern Provinces beforethe First Sino Japanese War

日本的恐俄心理是引起明治政府关注进而觊觎东三省的原因之一,也是马关谈判期间使明治政府决策层在割占东三省领土问题上相对收敛野心的重要因素。1879年日本成立东京地学协会,为日本谍报人员提供了学习交流的平台,促使其谍报成果质量逐步提高。甲午战前明治政府在何时略取东三省的问题上意见分歧较大,暂缓略取的意见占主流。随着日本财政状况的改善、军事实力的提升、国内矛盾的缓和,第二次伊藤博文内阁在重新评估中国军事实力和研判东亚国际形势之后,将略取计划重新提上日程并在甲午战争中付诸实践。

Japan’s fear of Russia is not only one of the reasons that the Meiji government pays attention to and covets the three Northeastern provinces,but also an important factor that causes the Meiji government’s decision-makers to relatively restrain their ambitions on the territorial issues of the three Northeastern provinces during the Shimonoseki negotiations.In 1879,Japan established the Tokyo geoscience Association,which provided a platform for Japanese spy personnel to learn and exchange,and promoted the quality of their spy achievements to gradually improve.Before the Sino Japanese War of 1894-1895,the Meiji government had different opinions on the issue of when to occupy the three Northeastern provinces,and the Conservatives occupied the mainstream.With the improvement of Japan’s financial situation,the improvement of its military strength,and the easing of domestic contradictions,the second time,after reassessing China’s military strength and studying and judging the international situation in East Asia,the ITO Hirofumi cabinet put the attack and occupation plan on the agenda again and put it into practice in the Sino Japanese War of 1894-1895.